2009 Elections - Forecast for BJP's Performance

Anantha's forecast

Things look grim for the BJP. As per my latest calculation, I can't see the lotus bloom in more than 130 seats. That's 8 seats lesser than 2004. Here's the statewise break-up as I see it:

NORTH - 26/126
Uttar Pradesh - 6/80
Uttar Khand - 4/5
Punjab - 3/13
Chandigarh - 1/1
Himachal - 3/4
Haryana - 3/10
Delhi - 4/7
J&K - 2/6

WEST - 72/143
Maharashtra - 18/48
Goa - 1/2
Daman - 1/1
Dadra Nagar - 1/1
Madhya Pradesh - 17/29
Chattisgarh - 7/11
Rajasthan - 9/25
Gujarat - 18/26

SOUTH - 14/131
Kerala - 0/20
Karnataka - 14/28
Tamil Nadu - 0/39
Pondichery - 0/1
Andhra - 0/42
Lakshadweep - 0/1

EAST - 26/143
Bihar - 10/40
Jharkand - 8/14
West Bengal - 0/42
Orissa - 3/21
Assam - 3/14
Arunachal - 1/2
Tripura - 0/2
Mizoram - 0/1
Manipur - 0/2
Meghalaya - 0/2
Nagaland - 0/1
Andamans - 1/1
Sikkim - 0/1

TOTAL - 130/543

Source: http://unantha.blogspot.com/2009/03/2009-election-analysis-bad-news-for-bjp.html

Could it be like this

NORTH - 36/126
Uttar Pradesh - 16/80
Uttar Khand - 4/5
Punjab - 3/13
Chandigarh - 1/1
Himachal - 3/4
Haryana - 3/10
Delhi - 4/7
J&K - 2/6

WEST - 88/143
Maharashtra - 18/48
Goa - 1/2
Daman - 1/1
Dadra Nagar - 1/1
Madhya Pradesh - 24/29
Chattisgarh - 7/11
Rajasthan - 15/25
Gujarat - 21/26

SOUTH - 26/131
Kerala - 0/20
Karnataka - 22/28
Tamil Nadu - 0/39
Pondichery - 0/1
Andhra - 4/42
Lakshadweep - 0/1

EAST - 32/143
Bihar - 10/40
Jharkand - 8/14
West Bengal - 1/42
Orissa - 5/21
Assam - 5/14
Arunachal - 1/2
Tripura - 0/2
Mizoram - 0/1
Manipur - 0/2
Meghalaya - 1/2
Nagaland - 0/1
Andamans - 1/1
Sikkim - 0/1

TOTAL - 36+88+26+32 =182 out of 543

This figure looks interesting. No doubt Times of India is giving on 145 to BJP but is giving 152 to Congress. But on paper it is not difficult to visualise 175 for BJP.